Question 1

What is the CPT Risk Index from Polymarket?

Accepted Answer

The CPT (Crypto Pain Terminal) Risk Index is a 0-100 composite score derived from Polymarket prediction market data. It combines black swan event probability weighting, Fed rate policy uncertainty, crypto regulatory sentiment and geopolitical risk across hundreds of active prediction markets. A score above 60 indicates elevated market risk.

Question 2

What is a black swan event in crypto markets?

Accepted Answer

In crypto, a black swan refers to a high-impact, low-probability event that can cause extreme price moves. Examples include exchange collapses, regulatory bans, protocol failures or macroeconomic shocks. This dashboard monitors Polymarket markets with probability below 10% but high trading volume as early black swan warning signals.

Question 3

How does the crypto regulatory tailwind index work?

Accepted Answer

The regulatory tailwind index aggregates bullish keywords (approve, ETF, sign, adopt) versus bearish keywords (ban, restrict, crackdown, reject) across all active Polymarket crypto markets, weighted by trading volume and current probability. Positive values indicate net regulatory optimism; negative values indicate risk-off sentiment.